The Quarterly National Household Survey isn't the most up to date data on the labour market that we have. For that we turn to the Live Register (see below). But the household survey is the most accurate data. The latest release - for the July to September period - confirms what Live Register data of that month suggested; a marked slowdown in the rate at which unemployment was rising. The fall in employment during the period is the lowest since the recession began while the rise in unemployment is rapidly slowing down.
The more up to date Live Register overstates the level of unemployment, but movements in it do tell us which way unemployment is changing. The change from October's Live Register of 422,500 to 423,400 in November doesn't look like a huge change. But for November's Live Register total, the slight rise is breath-taking, at least in the context of the previous months 3,000 decline. In both instances, the changes account for seasonal fluctuations. But after two years of rising relentlessly, which trend is representative of the future - October's fall or November's relapse? Averaging the two suggests that when QNHS figures come out for the final quarter a small drop in unemployment will result.
Monthly changes in Live Register; Absolute changes in red (left-axis), percentage changes in blue (right-axis)
The unemployment rate is now broadly constant, despite the November rise, at just over twelve and a half per cent. It's still too earlly to tell if this is a turnaround. But the signs are, at last, hopeful.