BACK IN BLACK?
Economic growth appears to be on the verge of returning. At least that's what the deceleration in quarterly growth rates for both GDP and GNP would suggest followed by the surprise return to positive quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the third quarter of 2009 as shown in the chart below. Live Register figures also suggest a corner is being turned for the economy. Even if the positive GDP growth is premature - it could result from the may volatile elements that drive GDP growth as distinct from GNP growth - the slowdown in decline of the more stable GNP measure from 1.7 per cent decline in the second quarter to a 1.4 per cent decline in the third quarter is yet more evidence of what economists call an "inflection point" in the economy - the period of transition from negative to positive growth.
Quarter-on-Quarter % change in GDP